A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
